Processing intelligence · I-485

The system stalls.

20 months of official USCIS data on the green card through adjustment of status: approval speed, the backlog that keeps growing, and the wait times that broke.

20
official monthly reports
Sep 23 → May 26
period analyzed
Scroll
Alert · May 2026

The backlog reached 1.57 million in May 2026 — +236K since the FY2026 Q1 close, with no sign of a brake.

Approvals fell to 27,997 in May — the lowest of the period. The Cuban Adjustment eased from its 29.8-month record (April) to 23.2 in May.

The dashboard · today
Total backlog
0
▲ +64% since Sep 2023
Approvals / month
0
▼ −61% vs Jul 2025 peak
Pending >6 months
0%
▲ was 61% in Sep 2023
Net gap / month
+49K
cases added to the backlog
Chapter 01 · The backlog

The line only grew.

From 957 thousand cases in September 2023 to more than 1.57 million in May 2026. In 20 months, the line never stopped growing.

Cumulative backlog May 26 · 1.57M
Sep 23Jul 25Apr 26
Drag your finger across the curve to see each month
Chapter 02 · The story in 3 acts

Deficit, rebound, collapse.

Sep 2023 – Jun 2024
Structural deficit

~54K approvals against ~75K received. The backlog grows 5–7K net per month. The system slips into chronic deficit.

Jul 2024 – Jul 2025
Active recovery

All-time peak of 71,254 approvals in July 2025. The backlog stabilizes. Family and Employment drop to lows of 8–9 months.

Aug 2025 – present
Speed collapse

The PM-602-0192 (Dec 2025) pause freezes everything. The backlog tops 1.57M in May. Speed bounces to 49K and collapses to 28K. The Cuban Adjustment hit a record 29.8 months in April.

Chapter 03 · The speed

The engine shut off.

Approvals hit an all-time peak in July 2025 — and have since fallen by more than 60%.

Jul 2025 peak
71,254
Drop to today
−45%
Jul 25 peak
71,254
May 26
27,997
Sep 23Jul 25Apr 26
Cuban Adjustment · deep dive

From 4.8 to 29.8 months in 2.7 years.

+0%
of deterioration in the
wait time
Cuban cases pending
354,649
93% have been waiting more than 6 months — that's 329,417 people on hold.
The jump from 12.9 to 27.8 months was not gradual — it was a break tied to the PM-602-0192 pause. The category that was once the fastest in the system is today among the most broken. In May it eased to 23.2 months — a breather, but still ~5× its historical base of 4.8.
Months of waiting May 26 · 23.2 mo
10.1 · Nov 24
27.8 · Jan 26
Sep 23Nov 25Apr 26
Drag to move through the 20 months
Chapter 04 · By category

Two systems, one line.

Family and Employment stay healthy (9–12 months). Asylum, Refugee and Cuban remain well above (23–30). Tap a category to follow its line.

36mo24mo12mo
Sep 23Nov 25Apr 26
The healthy
Employment at 9.3 mo. Family at 11.9 mo, predictable.
The broken
Asylum 29.6 mo, Refugee 28.5 mo (Feb's 87.6 was a reporting anomaly), Cuban 23.2 mo.
Chapter 05 · Where it's heading

The backlog already crossed 1.5M ahead of schedule.

We projected it for August. It happened in April. In May, 82K came in and only 28K were approved: +49K net in a single month. The arithmetic sped up.

✓
May 2026 — Backlog at 1.57M
1,566,485 cases; crossed 1.5M in April, four months ahead of projection.
→
Q3 2026 — 1.6M reachable
If speed stays below 45K approvals per month.
→
Cuban Adjustment — brushed the 30-month barrier
Hit 29.8 mo in April; eased to 23.2 in May, but still broken.
★
The only improvement scenario
Sustain 65–70K approvals/month — the July 2025 level. March's rebound fell short.
Method and source

Official monthly USCIS data for Form I-485, September 2023 to May 2026 (20 reports). The approval rate is calculated on decided cases. Processing times in average months per adjustment category. The 87.6-month Refugee spike (Feb 2026) was a reporting anomaly, later corrected. All figures come directly from the reports; none were estimated.

Inmigreatinmigreat· I-485 Special Report For informational use · Not legal advice