Analysis · I-485 · FY2017 → FY2026 Q1

Six million paths taken.

How the United States granted its green cards through adjustment of status, category by category, across fiscal years 2017 to 2026 — read straight from official USCIS data.

Coverage
36 quarters
AF 2017 Q2 → AF 2026 Q1
Categories
6 bases
Family · Employment · Cuban · Asylum · Refugee · Other
Source
USCIS
231 rows reconciled against the official total
Scroll
Chapter 01 · The total
Every application that reached USCIS in nine years:
0
I-485 applications received between 2017 and 2026 — each one, a person adjusting their status in the U.S.
Overall rate 89.8% approval of decided cases
Chapter 02 · The breakdown

One in two, family-based.

The I-485 splits across six legal categories. One alone — Family — holds half the volume, and where cases pile up is also where the most get denied.

Family
50.8%
3,363,215 applications
Employment
19.9%
1,319,522
Cuban
12.6%
833,917
Asylum
6.2%
Refugee
5.9%
Other
4.5%
Family
86.9%
approval · 421K denied
Employment
92.4%
approval · 96K denied
Cuban
95.2%
approval · 25K denied
Asylum
95.5%
approval · 15K denied
Refugee
96.2%
approval · 12K denied
Other
87.1%
approval · 35K denied
Where the denials live
7 out of 10 denials are family-based.
Of the 604,882 cases denied in nine years, 421,307 are family-based adjustments — the largest category and the strictest.
The unexpected podium
Cuba landed at #3.
Larger than asylum and refugee combined. With 95.2% approval, the Cuban Adjustment Act remains one of the most reliable paths to the green card.
Chapter 03 · Volume

Nine years in motion.

Annual intake by category. Family climbs nonstop, Employment had a single spike — and Cuba appears out of nowhere at the end.

Applications received · per year
Hover to see each year · click to pin · click legend to show or hide
500K 400K 300K 200K 100K
201720182019202020212022202320242025
2021 · employment
Peak of 292K — unused family visas rolled over to employment.
2023 → 2025 · cuban
The liftoff. 17K → 248K in 4 years.
Chapter 04 · The 2023 story

The Cuban boom.

For six years, Cuba was a minor line — between 17,000 and 60,000 applications per year.

Then came 2023.

In four years, the program grew tenfold — and one in every four green cards by adjustment became Cuban.

But cases arrive faster than USCIS can decide them. The Cuban backlog grew 15× to surpass 327,000 pending cases — the second largest in the system, after Family.

Fiscal year
2017
Applications received
0
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
'24
'25
Growth
10×
'21 → '25
Approval
95%
even during the boom
Backlog
15×
21K → 327K pending
Chapter 05 · Approval rates

Once decided, they almost always approve.

Of cases that reach a decision, humanitarian categories hover at 95-96%. The gap between the most permissive and the strictest category is under 10 points.

Refugee 96.2%
Asylum 95.5%
Cuban 95.2%
Employment 92.4%
Other 87.1%
Family 86.9%
The odd year
Family hit 81.2% in 2020.
Its worst year of the decade. COVID halted interviews and consular processing right where the category was already strictest. It recovered to ~88% by 2023.
Refugee · most stable
90 → 98%
Cuban · most volatile
85 → 98%
Chapter 06 · The backlog

1.33 million waiting today.

Pending cases at the close of FY2026 Q1. Family and Cuba — two categories — account for 65% of the queue.

0
applications pending · FY 2026 Q1
Family + Cuba
65%
of the total backlog
Cuba alone
327K
in 3 years
Family 536,170 · 40.3%
Cuban THE NEW KID 327,255 · 24.6%
Employment 210,629 · 15.8%
Refugee 109,700 · 8.2%
Asylum 102,484 · 7.7%
Other 44,048 · 3.3%
Chapter 07 · Takeaways

Five things the data taught us.

01

Family is the volume; humanitarian is the speed.

The 89.8% overall rate blends a large, strict category (Family, ~87%) with smaller, nearly automatic ones (Asylum, Refugee, Cuba: 95-96%). Reporting a single average hides two distinct systems.

02

The Cuban Adjustment Act is the story of the decade.

10× growth since 2023, now one in every four I-485s, with an approval rate that held at 95%+ — and a backlog that grew 15× to 327K cases.

03

The Employment spike in 2021 was an artifact, not a trend.

292K applications in one year was the result of unused family visa numbers rolling over to employment during COVID. Worth remembering when modeling the future: Employment lives in a ~110-130K/year band.

04

Two categories own 65% of the backlog.

Family (536K) by structure — it was always the largest. Cuba (327K) by velocity — cases came in faster than decisions went out. Any wait-time analysis starts here.

05

Asylum and Refugee adjustment are the safest bets.

95-98% approval, almost never denied — because eligibility was already established at a prior stage (the grant of asylum or refugee status). The I-485 here is more administrative formality than adjudication.

Frequently asked

About the I-485

What is the I-485 approval rate?
Between fiscal years 2017 and 2026, the I-485 (adjustment of status) had an overall 89.8% approval rate on decided cases, per official USCIS data. It varies by basis: humanitarian categories (asylum, refugee, Cuban) run 95–96%, while family is around 87%.
How many I-485 applications have been filed?
USCIS received 6,617,921 I-485 applications between 2017 and 2026. Half (50.8%) are family-based, followed by employment (19.9%) and the Cuban category (12.6%).
How many I-485 cases are pending today?
At the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 there were 1,330,286 I-485 applications pending. Family (40.3%) and the Cuban category (24.6%) make up 65% of the queue.
Which I-485 category is approved fastest?
Asylum and refugee categories are the safest, at 95–98% approval and almost never denied, because eligibility was already established at an earlier stage. For those, the I-485 is more an administrative formality than an adjudication.
Methodology and source

231 I-485 rows from the USCIS master file, classified by legal basis according to form title (Cuban / Indochinese / Refugee / Asylum / Employment / Family / Other). Six categories with full coverage across 36 quarters; Indochinese, retired after FY2019 Q1, excluded from rate calculations. Approval rate = approved ÷ (approved + denied). Partial years (FY2017 = Q2-Q4; FY2026 = Q1) noted throughout the report. All figures computed programmatically; none estimated.

Coverage
AF 2017 Q2 → AF 2026 Q1
36 quarters
Reconciliation
6,617,921 — matches the I-485 total in the USCIS aggregate report
Inmigreatinmigreat © 2026 · I-485 Report by adjustment basis Official USCIS data · This report does not constitute legal advice