Analysis · I-485 · FY2017 → FY2026 Q1

Six million paths.

How the United States granted its green cards through adjustment of status, category by category, between fiscal years 2017 and 2026 — read from the official USCIS data.

Coverage
36 quarters
FY 2017 Q2 → FY 2026 Q1
Categories
6 categories
Family · Employment · Cuban · Asylum · Refugee · Other
Source
USCIS
231 rows reconciled with the official total
Geography
90 offices
+ 6 service centers · FY2026 Q1
Scroll
Chapter 01 · The total
Every application that reached USCIS in nine years:
0
I-485 applications received between 2017 and 2026 — each one a person adjusting their status in the U.S.
Overall rate 89.8% approval of decided cases
Chapter 02 · The split

One in two is family.

The I-485 splits across six legal categories. A single one — Family — holds half the volume, and where the cases are most numerous is also where the most are denied.

Family
50.8%
3,363,215 applications
Employment
19.9%
1,319,522
Cuban
12.6%
833,917
Asylum
6.2%
Refugee
5.9%
Other
4.5%
Family
86.9%
approval · 421K denied
Employment
92.4%
approval · 96K denied
Cuban
95.2%
approval · 25K denied
Asylum
95.5%
approval · 15K denied
Refugee
96.2%
approval · 12K denied
Other
87.1%
approval · 35K denied
Where the denials live
7 out of every 10 denials are family.
Of the 604,882 cases denied in nine years, 421,307 are family adjustments — the largest base and the strictest.
The unexpected podium
Cuba landed at #3.
Bigger than asylum and refugee combined. With a 95.2% approval rate, the Cuban Adjustment Act remains one of the most reliable paths to a green card.
Chapter 03 · Volume

Nine years of movement.

Annual volume received, by base. Family grows nonstop, Employment had a single spike — and Cuba appears out of nowhere at the end.

Applications received · per year
Hover to see each year · click to pin · click the legend to show or hide
500K 400K 300K 200K 100K
201720182019202020212022202320242025
2021 · employment
292K spike — unused family visas rolled over to employment.
2023 → 2025 · cuban
The takeoff. 17K → 248K in 4 years.
Chapter 04 · The 2023 story

The Cuban boom.

For six years, Cuba was a minor line — between 17,000 and 60,000 applications per year.

Then came 2023.

In four years, the program grew tenfold — and one in four green cards through adjustment became Cuban.

But cases arrive faster than USCIS can decide them. The Cuban bottleneck grew 15× to surpass 327,000 pending cases — the second largest in the system, after Family.

Fiscal year
2017
Applications received
0
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
'24
'25
Growth
10×
'21 → '25
Approval
95%
even during the boom
Bottleneck
15×
21K → 327K pending
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Chapter 05 · Approval

Once decided, almost always approved.

Among cases that reach a decision, the humanitarian categories hover around 95-96%. The gap between the most permissive base and the strictest is less than 10 points.

Refugee 96.2%
Asylum 95.5%
Cuban 95.2%
Employment 92.4%
Other 87.1%
Family 86.9%
The odd year
Family hit 81.2% in 2020.
Its worst year of the decade. COVID halted interviews and consular processing right where the base was already strictest. It recovered to ~88% by 2023.
Refugee · most stable
90 → 98%
Cuban · most volatile
85 → 98%
Chapter 06 · The bottleneck

1.33 million are waiting today.

Cases pending at the close of the first quarter of 2026. Family and Cuba — two bases — hold 65% of the queue.

0
applications pending · FY 2026 Q1
Family + Cuba
65%
of the total bottleneck
Cuba alone
327K
in 3 years
Family 536,170 · 40.3%
Cuban THE NEW ONE 327,255 · 24.6%
Employment 210,629 · 15.8%
Refugee 109,700 · 8.2%
Asylum 102,484 · 7.7%
Other 44,048 · 3.3%
Chapter 07 · The geography

The bottleneck has an address.

The same 1.33M from the previous chapter, now broken out across 90 field offices and 6 service centers — and over time: 49 comparable quarters, FY2014 → FY2026. Source: DHS / USCIS Office of Performance and Quality.

Received Q1
242,497
Decided Q1
149,825
More came in than went out
+92,672
Approval rate
89.1%
of decided

Four queues, four speeds.

Months to clear the queue at the current decision pace, by category:

Family15.1 months
Other19.9 months
Employment26.3 months
Humanitarian (asylum, refugee, Cuban)130.9 months

"Months to clear the queue" is a descriptive metric of each office's pace (pending ÷ monthly decisions in the quarter). It is NOT a personal wait-time prediction: it does not account for each case's age or category prioritization.

The humanitarian capital
Florida holds 1 in 3.
178,269 pending humanitarian cases — 33.0% of the entire national humanitarian backlog — are waiting in Florida offices.
Kendall38,746
Hialeah35,354
Tampa31,727
The invisible queue
Vermont holds 177,046 families.
33.0% of the national family backlog isn't in any field office: it's held at the Vermont Service Center. Service centers hold 18.6% of the total backlog.
The full series · 49 quarters

The photo says where. The film says what happened.

Florida's humanitarian queue, quarter by quarter since FY2014. For nine years it was a boring story. Then it stopped being one — in four acts.

Pending I-485 humanitarian cases in Florida offices, by fiscal quarter. FY2015 Q1 has no per-office breakdown (discontinuity). Source: USCIS I-485 Performance Data, series normalized from 95 official files.
ACT 01FY2014 – FY2022
The system worked.

For 9 years the queue swung between 7,893 and 39,781 and always self-corrected: the FY2018 Q1 peak was worked down to its low in FY2020 Q2.

ACT 02FY2023
The explosion.

The wave of Cuban Adjustment eligibility after CHNV parole tripled receipts in a single quarter: from 12,293 to 43,057 (FY2023 Q3). Pending: from 33,392 (FY2023 Q2) to 108,309 (FY2024 Q1).

ACT 03FY2024
The response.

USCIS scaled decisions to record highs — 34,139 in a single quarter (FY2024 Q3) — and the queue FELL from 111,213 to 79,876: the system was catching up to the wave.

ACT 04FY2025 – FY2026
The brake.

Decisions collapsed ×52.6 from the peak, while 13K–40K cases kept arriving each quarter. Pending: from 79,876 to 178,269.

Decisions per quarter · Florida humanitarian
USCIS proved it can.

In FY2024 Q3 it decided 34,139 cases in one quarter, in Florida alone. Six quarters later it decides 649.

×52.6slowdown vs. the best pace
34,139
24 Q3
14,288
24 Q4
9,299
25 Q1
11,225
25 Q2
3,485
25 Q3
1,706
25 Q4
649
26 Q1
The same 178,269 pending, four paces
How long to clear Florida's queue?
Current pace (FY2026 Q1)
649 decisions / quarter
824 months
= 68.7 years
FY2025 average pace
6,429 decisions / quarter
83.2 months
FY2024 average pace
25,464 decisions / quarter
21 months
Best pace on record (FY2024 Q3)
34,139 decisions / quarter
15.7 months
Humanitarian pending · FY2022 Q1 → FY2026 Q1
Kendall
×16.4
2,366 → 38,746
Hialeah
×16.3
2,167 → 35,354
Miami
×12
1,639 → 19,645
Miami-Dade
×15.2
6,172 → 93,745
Florida (total)
×15.4
11,566 → 178,269
"Florida's humanitarian queue isn't a capacity problem: it's a decision. USCIS proved in FY2024 that it can decide 34,139 cases per quarter in Florida alone; today it decides 649. At the FY2024 pace, the queue clears in 21 months; at the current pace, in 69 years."

The 10 offices with the most people in line.

In the top 5, the dominant category is humanitarian.

Houston HOU · Texas HUMANITARIAN49,451
Tampa TAM · Florida HUMANITARIAN43,806
Kendall KND · Florida HUMANITARIAN42,757
Hialeah HIA · Florida HUMANITARIAN39,071
Dallas DAL · Texas HUMANITARIAN34,010
San Antonio SNA · Texas HUMANITARIAN28,461
Miami MIA · Florida HUMANITARIAN26,330
Orlando ORL · Florida FAMILY25,640
Chicago CHI · Illinois FAMILY25,092
San Jose SNJ · California EMPLOYMENT23,239
The interactive piece

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Which USCIS office has the most pending I-485 cases?
Houston, with 49,451 pending cases at the close of FY2026 Q1, followed by Tampa, Kendall, and Hialeah. In the top 5 offices the dominant category is humanitarian.
Where are humanitarian I-485 cases concentrated?
In Florida, with 178,269 pending — 33.0% of the national humanitarian total — led by Kendall (38,746), Hialeah (35,354), and Tampa (31,727).
Chapter 08 · Conclusions

Five things we learned.

01

Family is the body, the humanitarian categories are the speed.

The overall 89.8% blends a large, strict base (Family, ~87%) with small, nearly automatic bases (Asylum, Refugee, Cuba: 95-96%). Reporting a single average number hides two distinct systems.

02

The Cuban Adjustment Act is the story of the decade.

10× growth since 2023, today one in four I-485s, with an approval rate that held at 95%+ — and a bottleneck that grew 15× to 327K cases.

03

The 2021 Employment spike was an artifact, not a trend.

292K applications in one year resulted from unused family visa numbers that rolled over to the employment category during COVID. Worth remembering when modeling the future: Employment lives in a band of ~110-130K/year.

04

Two bases own 65% of the bottleneck.

Family (536K) by structure — it was always the largest. Cuba (327K) by speed — cases arrived faster than decisions. Any wait-time analysis starts here.

05

Asylum and Refugee adjustment are the safest bets.

95-98% approval, almost never denied — because eligibility was already established at the prior stage (the grant of asylum or refugee status). The I-485 here is more administrative paperwork than adjudication.

Frequently asked questions

About the I-485

What is the I-485 approval rate?
Between fiscal years 2017 and 2026, the I-485 (adjustment of status) had an overall approval rate of 89.8% on decided cases, according to official USCIS data. It varies by base: humanitarian categories (asylum, refugee, Cuban) hover around 95–96%, while family is close to 87%.
How many I-485 applications have been filed?
USCIS received 6,617,921 I-485 applications between 2017 and 2026. Half (50.8%) are family-based, followed by employment (19.9%) and the Cuban category (12.6%).
How many I-485 cases are pending today?
At the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 there were 1,330,286 pending I-485 applications. Family (40.3%) and the Cuban category (24.6%) hold 65% of the queue.
Which I-485 category is approved fastest?
Asylum and refugee categories are the safest, with 95–98% approval and almost never denied, because eligibility was already established at an earlier stage. In those cases the I-485 is more an administrative formality than an adjudication.
Method & source

Geographic chapter: FY2026 Q1 per-office dataset (DHS / USCIS Office of Performance and Quality, NPD, query 01/2026, PAER0020062), 99 rows reconciled programmatically against the official total and against the main report's figures. Offices with no activity excluded from the selector: Chula Vista (CA), Dover (DE), and Charleston (WV). Time series: FY2014 Q1 – FY2026 Q1, 49 comparable quarters normalized from 95 official files; FY2015 Q1 has no per-office breakdown (marked discontinuity); FY2013 Q4 excluded due to overlap with legacy cumulative reports.

231 I-485 rows from the USCIS master file, classified by legal base according to the form title (Cuban / Indochinese / Refugee / Asylum / Employment / Family / Other). Six bases with full coverage across 36 quarters; Indochinese, discontinued after FY2019 Q1, excluded from rate calculations. Approval rate = approved ÷ (approved + denied). Partial years (FY2017 = Q2-Q4; FY2026 = Q1) marked throughout the report. All figures computed programmatically; none estimated.

Coverage
FY 2017 Q2 → FY 2026 Q1
36 quarters
Reconciliation
6,617,921 — matches the I-485 total in the USCIS aggregate report
Inmigreatinmigreat © 2026 · I-485 report by adjustment base Official USCIS data · This report does not constitute legal advice