Analysis · I-130 · Approved petitions awaiting a visa

One million in line.

Approved I-130 family petitions, waiting for a visa number to move forward. The human face of the green card backlog — by country of birth and family category.

In line today

1,032,035

petitions · FY 2026 Q1

Window

17 snapshots

FY 2021 Q3 → FY 2026 Q1

Slices

5 · 5

countries · categories F1–F4

Scroll

Before you read a single number

This is a snapshot of the line, not a count of arrivals.

Every number is how many people are standing in line at that moment — not how many arrived. So if the line shrinks, it means it's draining faster than it fills — not that fewer people are migrating.

Entering →

Approved petitions

USCIS approves the I-130

The backlog

→ Exiting

Visas issued

The State Department assigns the number

Backlog shrinking = more people leaving than entering. Good news for those waiting.

Chapter 01 · Who's waiting today

petitions I-130 approved, awaiting visa · FY 2026 Q1

By country of birth

Rest of world509,691 · 49.4%

México THE ENGINE361,047 · 35.0%

India66,806 · 6.5%

Philippines49,932 · 4.8%

China44,559 · 4.3%

México alone is more than India, Philippines, and China combined — by a factor of three.

By preference category

F4 · Siblings of citizens

70%

of the entire backlog. Nearly three out of four people waiting are the brother or sister of a U.S. citizen.

F4 · Siblings725,296

F2B · Adult children of LPRs131,939

F3 · Married children of citizens97,828

F1 · Unmarried children of citizens71,916

F2A · Spouses/children of LPRs5,056

Chapter 02 · The big surprise

The backlog is draining.

In line · apr 2021

1,306,994

Peak · sep 2023

1,686,001

Since the peak

−39%

1.69M → 1.03M

Declining

9 qtrs.

consecutive quarters down

Net 5 years

−21%

best level of the period

Chapter 03 · The engine

México moved the needle.

Its backlog dropped 37% (−210K), the largest contributor to the overall decline. "Rest of world" had the most dramatic spike-and-recovery: up to 862K and back to 510K.

In line · by country México Rest India Philippines China

          2021
start
          sep 2023
peak
          2026
today
        

México

−37%

−210K · 35% of the backlog

Rest

−5.9%

~150 countries · 49%

India

−12.5%

small and steady

Philippines

−21.2%

distinct mix

China

−19.1%

85% siblings

Chapter 04 · The enigma

F2A: the fast lane.

Spouses and minor children of LPRs are the highest-priority category. Visas are almost always available, so nobody waits — the line reads zero.

When demand exceeds the cap, a brief line forms (the 380K spike in 2023) that drains back to zero. These numbers are episodic, not a trend.

most of the time

380K

episodic peak · 2023

today · near zero again

F2A in line · the pattern

            2021 · 02023 · 380K2026 · 5K
          

Chapter 05 · Where the weight falls

For India and China, the wait is all about siblings.

Country × category, FY 2026 Q1. Color intensity marks backlog depth. Hover over each cell for details.

F1
unmarried USC

F2A
spouses LPR

F2B
children LPR

F3
married USC

F4
siblings

F4 %

91%

of India's backlog is siblings (F4)

Waits that run decades. China: 85%.

75%

of México's backlog is siblings

But with volume across all categories: the largest F3 of any country (40,817).

24%

Philippines is the exception

Its backlog is split across F2B and F3 — fewer siblings.

Chapter 06 · Takeaways

Six things we learned.

It's a stock, not a flow.

A shrinking backlog means it's draining — visas issued faster than petitions coming in — not that fewer people are migrating. The −21% is good news for those waiting.

The peak was 1.69M; it has drained 39% since.

From September 2023 to today, nine consecutive quarters down, reaching 1.03M — the best level in five years.

Siblings (F4) are 70% of the backlog.

Reforming the family visa backlog is, mathematically, reforming the siblings backlog.

México is 35% of the backlog and drove the decline.

−37% (−210K), more than India, China, and Philippines combined. The center of gravity of family visa demand.

For India (91%) and China (85%), the backlog is almost pure siblings.

The longest-wait category — spouses and children move quickly; siblings wait decades.

F2A is the fast lane.

Spouses and children of LPRs barely wait: the line is usually zero. Their spikes are visa-availability episodes, not a backlog.

Frequently asked

About the I-130

How many I-130 petitions are waiting for a visa?

At the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 there were 1,032,035 approved I-130 petitions waiting for a visa number, per official USCIS data. That's down 39% from its peak of 1.69 million in September 2023.

Why does the I-130 take so long?

An approved I-130 enters a visa queue with per-country and per-category caps. 70% of the wait is siblings of U.S. citizens (category F4), the longest-wait category — decades for India (91% of its queue is siblings) and China (85%).

Which country has the most I-130 petitions waiting?

Mexico holds 35% of the backlog (361,047 petitions) — more than India, the Philippines and China combined. Even so, its queue dropped 37% (−210K), the biggest driver of the overall decline.

Does the F2A category (spouses of residents) have a wait?

Almost never. F2A is the highest-priority category: visas are usually available, so the line reads zero most of the time. Only episodic spikes appear (like the 380K in 2023) that drain back quickly.

Methodology and source

17 quarterly snapshots (FY 2021 Q3 → FY 2026 Q1), 36 rows each (6 country groups × 6 category groups). All values are point-in-time counts of approved I-130 petitions awaiting a visa number — no value is a flow (filings/approvals/denials) or an estimate. Aggregates reconcile exactly (country→TOTAL, category→ALL). The 0↔spike behavior of F2A are visa-availability episodes ("current"), not errors. Two snapshots noted: FY2021 Q3 (legacy, Apr 2 2021) and the Dec 31 2023 snapshot (duplicated as FY2024 Q1/Q2), treated as one.

Coverage

FY 2021 Q3 → FY 2026 Q1
17 snapshots · 36 rows each

Reconciliation

Exact to the figure · zero nulls