Analysis · I-130 · The complete journey of a family petition

From the inbox to the green card.

Every I-130 petition travels the same path: it waits for a USCIS decision and — if approved — waits for a visa number. We follow that journey with official USCIS data, stop by stop. Three reports, one single story.

Awaiting decision
2.3M
pending at USCIS
In the visa queue
1.03M
approved, waiting for a slot
Approval
87.5%
this quarter
The same form, four different moments. Follow the thread.
Scroll
The journey map

Three waiting rooms, one single building.

None of these figures is the same queue. They are different stops on the same path — and we're going to walk them in order.

Room 1 · Under review
2,348,518
Pending — waiting for USCIS to decide yes or no.
Room 2 · The decision
87.5%
Get approved. 188,436 approved · 26,881 denied this quarter.
Room 3 · The visa queue
1,032,035
Approved, waiting for a slot. USCIS isn't in charge here: the law is.
These are all snapshots of a single moment (Dec 31, 2025), not counts of arrivals. They don't add up together — they are stages of the same journey.
Chapter 01 · The big room

Two point three million await a yes or a no.

0
I-130 petitions awaiting a USCIS decision · FY 2026 Q1
Who awaits a decision, by track
Preference (F1–F4) THE SLOW TRACK1,576,284 · 67%
Immediate relative (IR)772,234 · 33%
Two out of every three awaiting a decision are preference cases — the track with an annual cap. U.S. family demand is dominated by the slowest queue.
The pulse of the quarter
Received
0
Approved
0
Denied
0
Chapter 02 · The inverted mirror

"Pending" is not the same as "backlog."

Pending is 67% preference. But the real backlog is 91% immediate relative. It's an inverted mirror — and there's a reason.

Pending · everything that's waiting
2.35M
Preference67%
Immediate relative33%
Net Backlog · the real backlog
~539K
Immediate relative489,800 · 91%
Preference49,500 · 9%

Why: USCIS defines "backlog" as what's pending beyond its target time and within its control. Almost all preference pending is excluded — those people aren't waiting on USCIS, they're waiting on a visa number.

The backlog measures how slow USCIS is. The visa queue measures the limits set by Congress. They are not the same problem.

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Chapter 03 · Where the wait lives

Five buildings hold almost everything.

The I-130 is adjudicated at service centers, not at the field offices where you have your interview. Five centers hold 87.6% of all pending.

87.6%
of pending lives in 5 service centers
2,057,451 of 2,348,518
The office that holds the most family petitions in the country is in Vermont — a state with fewer people than many cities. The geography of the backlog has nothing to do with where you live; it depends on how USCIS distributes the workload.
Vermont ESC467,776 · 19.9%
California WSC447,757 · 19.1%
Texas SSC391,861 · 16.7%
Nebraska NSC375,540 · 16.0%
Potomac YSC374,517 · 16.0%
Field offices — where your interview takes place — hold almost no I-130s. Your assigned center depends on USCIS logistics, not your zip code.
Field office vs. service center
Field office

It's the office you go to in person: your biometrics appointment and, if your case requires one, your interview. It serves the public and handles local paperwork — but it decides almost no I-130 petitions.

~90 offices · under 3% of pending
Service center

These are centers closed to the public where forms sent by mail are processed and decided. Your I-130 is adjudicated here. Five centers hold almost all of the country's workload.

5 centers · 87.6% of pending
Explore any office
Choose among the 99 offices and territories to see its I-130 pending and what share of the national total it represents.
Chapter 04 · The visa queue
Those who reached this point have already won the part USCIS controls. Their file says "approved." Now the only variable is the calendar of Congress.
0
approved I-130 petitions, waiting for a visa · FY 2026 Q1
By country of birth
Rest of the world509,691 · 49.4%
Mexico THE ENGINE361,047 · 35.0%
India66,806 · 6.5%
Philippines49,932 · 4.8%
China44,559 · 4.3%
Mexico alone is more than India, the Philippines and China combined — by three times.
By preference category
F4 · Siblings of citizens
70%
of the entire queue. Almost three out of four who are waiting are the brother or sister of a U.S. citizen.
F4 · Siblings725,296
F2B · Adult children of residents131,939
F3 · Married children of citizens97,828
F1 · Unmarried children of citizens71,916
F2A · Spouses/children of residents5,056
Chapter 02 · The big surprise

The queue is emptying.

In the queue · Apr 2021
1,306,994
1.7M 1.5M 1.3M 1.1M
Peak · Sep 2023
1,686,001
From the peak
−39%
1.69M → 1.03M
Falling
9 qtrs.
in a row, trending down
Net 5 years
−21%
the best level of the period
The visa queue · The engine

Mexico moved the needle.

Its queue fell 37% (−210K), the biggest contribution to the total decline. "Rest of the world" had the most dramatic peak-and-recovery: it rose to 862K and came back down to 510K.

In the queue · by country Mexico Rest India Philippines China
2021
start
Sep 2023
peak
2026
today
Mexico
−37%
−210K · 35% of the queue
Rest
−5.9%
~150 countries · 49%
India
−12.5%
small and stable
Philippines
−21.2%
a different mix
China
−19.1%
85% siblings
The visa queue · The F2A puzzle

F2A: the fast track.

Spouses and minor children of residents are the highest-priority category. Visas are almost always available, so no one waits — the queue reads zero.

When demand exceeds the cap, a brief queue forms (the 380K peak in 2023) that drains back to zero. Its numbers are episodic, not a trend.

0
most of the time
380K
episodic peak · 2023
5K
today · almost zero again
F2A in the queue · the pattern
2021 · 02023 · 380K2026 · 5K
The visa queue · Where it concentrates

For India and China, the wait is the siblings.

Country × category, FY 2026 Q1. Color marks the intensity of the queue. Hover over each cell to see the detail.

F1
unmarried USC
F2A
spouses LPR
F2B
children LPR
F3
married USC
F4
siblings
F4 %
91%
of India's queue are siblings (F4)
Waits that run decades. China: 85%.
75%
of Mexico's queue are siblings
But with volume across all: the largest F3 of any country (40,817).
24%
The Philippines is the exception
Its queue is split across F2B and F3 — fewer siblings.
Chapter 05 · Honesty

What these numbers are NOT.

They don't add up

2.3M under review + 1.03M in the visa queue are not 3.3M people. They are different stages of the same path; adding them is double-counting.

Petitions, not people

One petitioner can file several, and derivative beneficiaries — spouse, children — aren't counted separately. The real number of people is higher.

Snapshots, not flows

Except for quarterly received/approved/denied, everything is a point-in-time stock as of Dec 31, 2025 — a snapshot, not a count of arrivals.

Chapter 06 · Conclusions

Eight things we learned.

01

It's a stock, not a flow.

A falling queue means it's emptying — visas issued faster than petitions coming in — not that fewer people are migrating. The −21% is good news for those who wait.

02

The peak was 1.69M; it has drained 39% since then.

From September 2023 to today, nine consecutive quarters of decline, down to 1.03M — the best level in five years.

03

Siblings (F4) are 70% of the queue.

Reforming the family visa queue is, mathematically, reforming the siblings queue.

04

Mexico is 35% of the queue and drove the decline.

−37% (−210K), more than India, China and the Philippines combined. The center of gravity of family visa demand.

05

For India (91%) and China (85%), the queue is almost pure siblings.

The longest-waiting category — spouses and children advance quickly; siblings wait decades.

06

F2A is the fast track.

Spouses and children of residents barely wait: the queue is usually zero. Its peaks are episodes of visa availability, not a backlog.

07

The "real backlog" is 91% immediate relative, not preference.

The backlog USCIS can resolve and the one that depends on Congress are opposite problems. Confusing them is the most common mistake when reading this data.

08

Five centers hold 88% of everything.

The wait is decided by USCIS logistics — Vermont, California, Texas, Nebraska, Potomac — not by your zip code.

Frequently asked questions

About Form I-130

How many I-130 petitions are waiting for a visa?
At the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 there were 1,032,035 approved I-130 petitions waiting for a visa number, according to official USCIS data. The figure fell 39% from its peak of 1.69 million in September 2023.
Why does the I-130 take so long?
An approved I-130 enters a visa queue with caps by country and category. 70% of the wait are siblings of citizens (category F4), the category with the longest waits — decades for India (91% of its queue are siblings) and China (85%).
Which country has the most I-130 petitions waiting?
Mexico holds 35% of the backlog (361,047 petitions) — more than India, the Philippines and China combined. Even so, its queue fell 37% (−210K), the biggest contribution to the overall decline.
Does the F2A category (spouses of residents) have a wait?
Almost never. F2A is the highest priority: visas are usually available, so the queue reads zero most of the time. Only episodic peaks appear (like the 380K in 2023) that drain quickly.
Method & source

Three official USCIS reports (Office of Performance and Quality, accessed 01/2026), combined into a single journey: performance and pending by office (PAER0020061, Oct–Dec 2025), Net Backlog by form type (as of Dec 31, 2025) and approved petitions waiting for a visa by category and country (PAER0020057, 17 snapshots FY2021 Q3→FY2026 Q1). All values are point-in-time counts (stock), except quarterly received/approved/denied (flow). The aggregates reconcile to the figure (office→total, country→TOTAL, category→ALL). The frontlog is published only at the all-forms level, not per I-130, which is why it's left out.

Coverage
FY 2021 Q3 → FY 2026 Q1
17 snapshots · 36 rows each
Reconciliation
Exact to the figure · zero nulls
Inmigreatinmigreat © 2026 · I-130 Report · The complete journey of a family petition Official USCIS data · This report does not constitute legal advice