On November 14, journalist Mario Pentón unveiled the latest official figures from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on his social media. While the original source isn't identified, Pentón shared the approved humanitarian parole case numbers for Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Haitians until the end of October.

Total Passes by Nationality

According to the DHS, so far the following have been approved by countries:

‍

• 107,697 Haitians.
• 77,021 Venezuelans,
• 57,243 Cubans
• 48,840 Nicaraguans.

‍

The journalist also shared the approval numbers by nationality in all months to date. Information we leave you in this link.

Confirms Uniform Processing

What do the recently revealed figures tell us? These statistics validate our earlier assessment of uniform processing by nationality. Utilizing data from the close of April and August, Inmigreat forecasted a consistent USCIS procedure across all nationalities. 

Using this data and a mathematical formula simulating USCIS processing, Inmigreat calculated the percentages of delay and advancement for each country involved in the parole process. Despite initial perceptions, Haitians faced the greatest impact of uniform processing, constituting about half of the applications during that period.

Cubans and Haitians Facing Equal Processing

While recent figures confirm the application of equal processing, particularly affecting countries with higher application volumes like Haiti and Cuba, the apparent increase in approvals for Haitians doesn't necessarily indicate faster progress on the parole list. 

A fair comparison between the number of approvals and requests is essential to determine true favoritism. In that proportion, we will find the truth. And, USCIS should apply this same logic in the processing of paroles, considering a fair chronological order, Yet, our observations reveal a deviation from this ideal scenario.

Is discouraging to see nearly equal approvals for Cuba and Nicaragua, despite Cubans submitting almost double the applications of Nicaraguans, raising questions about the process's fairness.

Inmigreat Case Tracker Aligns with Official Data

In addition, the overall data highlights substantial approvals for Venezuelans and Nicaraguans, closely comparable to Cubans. Notably, the October graph, as presented by Mario Pentón, reveals a correlation between approved cases and USCIS applications, with a clear trend of processing more Haitian cases, followed by Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans.

Recent studies on our user sample (exceeding 100k) indicate an acceleration in processing during October and early November, consistent with our predominantly Haitian and Cuban user base. This once again resonates with the official data presented by Mario. Does this suggest an imminent gap between countries, as predicted?

Are we already in the Moment of Lapse?

The trend in approval behavior within Inmigreat's data raises suspicions that we may be on the verge of the anticipated gap, if not already immersed in it. The remarkable surge in case approvals during the first week of November has been notable, followed by a slight deceleration at the onset of the second week, contrasting the earlier rapid pace. 

While the uptick in approvals for Haitians and Cubans may suggest USCIS concludes the processing of Nicaraguan and Venezuelan cases, aligning with the abandonment of equal processing, we need to observe how the remainder of November and possibly December unfolds. Only then can we gauge the pattern conclusively and affirm the occurrence of the projected gap.