Although USCIS has reported the approved cases of humanitarian parole with a relatively stable frequency, the information provided is quite general. 

However, Inmigreat, a company specializing in data analysis and immigration advice, has developed a mathematical function that simulates the case selection process of USCIS. In light of the ongoing debate surrounding the January cases, Immigrate has taken a step further. We developed a formula that calculates how many of the total approved applications belong to that month. 

Using this formula, Immigrate has estimated the probable date on which the processing of all cases for January and other months will be completed. If you're interested in learning more about this estimate, keep reading further!

What analysis method does Inmigreat use?

To perform this analysis, Immigrate utilized a combination of three key elements. These include:

• the data provided by journalist Mario Pentón on the number of cases processed by USCIS until August 31, 
• the processing method used by USCIS since April (processing 1,000 applications per day, 500 in chronological order and 500 at random), 
• and the statistics of cases in their application, Inmigreat Case Tracker. 

What does this all mean? Inmigreat has around 100,000 cases recorded in their Case Tracker, which reliably represents a representative sample of all cases in USCIS. The company uses variables and applies mathematical methods to estimate each parameter that makes up this selection process (registration fee per month, chronological order, selection system, random probability, etc.). 

What results have we obtained?

By this method, Immigrate has been able to make several estimates, such as:

• The probability that each applicant has to be approved randomly, 
• The behavior of daily approvals for each nationality, 
• The percentage of January applications that have already been processed to date (in chronological selection and random selection), 
• The percentage of January applications that are still pending.
• The time that will take the pending processing (when will it be the turn of each month's cases). 
• And to determine the lag in chronological order by country, by approval rates unrelated to the number of pending applications. 

How is the probability of being approved in the random selection calculated?

Each person currently has approximately one 0.04% probability of being selected through random selection. In other words, if we divide the 500 cases that are processed randomly each day by the total number of the one presented, it gives us the probability of being selected.

Does this value change? Why don't I see the changes?

Yes, it does. However, while this value does change daily depending on the number of cases USCIS closes (theoretically 1,000) and how many applications come in daily, the change is barely noticeable. The probability percentage varies daily, but the difference is so small that it is not noticeable once the number is rounded. So, the value does change, but just by a small amount.

How do daily approvals behave for each nationality?

Immigrate has analyzed the processing of cases by USCIS and has found that USCIS tends to approve a similar number of applications daily from the four countries. However, the number of requests that arrive daily from each country is very different, so equal processing does not reflect a fair ratio for a first-come, first-served process.

 As a result, Nicaragua and Venezuela, which have fewer requests, move quickly in the approval process, while Cuba and Haiti, which represent the majority of requests, go much slower in their approval. 

For example, about 18 cases a day should be processed for Nicaragua, however, they are approving about 165, which means they have a 14.6% advantage in the approval list. On the other hand, Haitians should be approving at a rate of 527 cases a day, but they are only approving about 354, which means they are going 17.4% slower in their approval. This means that the daily processes for each nationality behave differently, and the processing time varies depending on the number of applications received from each country.

How Many Pending January Cases Remain for Each Nationality?

Inmigreat has finalized the total approvals by nationalities that were reported until August 31. Using this data, we were able to estimate what percentage the approvals by country represent in the total number of cases. This helped to understand how the approval of cases by nationality will look in January.

According to the values provided, we can interpret that 50% of the daily approvals that USCIS makes are done in date order, which means that they are entirely January cases. The other 50% is selected randomly, including cases from January since they are part of the total.

Using this information, Inmigreat has estimated the percentage of January cases that have been approved for each nationality. For example, in the case of Cubans, it is estimated that 60.00% of the total approved applications have been from January. This means that out of the 41,000 applications that had been approved by the end of August, 24,612 of them were from January cases.

What percentage of January is already approved?

In general terms, many people are wondering when USCIS will finish processing the January applications. It has been more than nine months since the program opened, and applications submitted in the first month are still not finished. USCIS has not even provided information on what percentage of January applications have been approved. 

However, applying our model to the variables we have explained, Inmigreat has been able to estimate how many of the total approved cases by the end of August belonged to January and how many are still pending processing.

According to this, at the end of August, 325,500 applications had been received from January, of which 124,680 had already been approved and there were 200,820 applications still pending processing. This means that January was 38.3% complete.

When will January cases be processed?

Based on Inmigreat's calculations, as of August 31, only 38.30% of all applications submitted in January had been processed. While this may sound worrying, it does not come as a surprise considering that around 13,000 applications arrived daily in January, making it one of the months with the most applications for humanitarian parole. 

However, the interesting thing is that despite the massive number of applications in January, 59.37% of the total approvals to date correspond to that month. This indicates that USCIS is prioritizing January cases, and it seems that the chronological order is working, which supports Inmigreat's studies. 

According to our calculations, all cases from January should be finished by early December 2024. While this time frame may seem lengthy, it's important to note that these estimates are based on USCIS continuing to process applications in the same way until August 31. Any changes in their methodology could alter these values. So, we will have to wait and see what happens!

How long will the waiting time be for cases from other months?

Once the approval percentages and pending cases for January have been determined, we can calculate the remaining months, and it is even possible to predict an approximate time it takes for the rest of the applications to be approved.

According to Immigrate's estimates, February is the month with the largest number of humanitarian parole applications submitted, with a total of 364,476 entries. As of August 31, only 42,236 of these applications had been processed, with 322,240 still pending. Of the total cases approved to date, only 11.58% belonged to applications from February. 

This indicates that USCIS is currently prioritizing January cases over February cases. Based on their calculations, the estimated date on which all February cases will be processed is around November 2025. 

Final considerations

It is important to keep in mind that Inmigreat's studies are based on the data provided through August 31, and if USCIS changes its methodology, the processing time could speed up or slow down. The numbers provided by Immigrate are estimates and probabilities based on statistical analysis, so it's important to keep a realistic perspective.

It's also crucial to objectively analyze our experiences and consider the approval behavior to date. Panic and blame won't help the situation. Instead, we should continue to monitor the progress of the processing and be patient. The estimated approval dates may seem far off, overall, Immigrate's analysis provides valuable insights into the processing of humanitarian parole applications, and we should keep these estimates in mind while waiting for USCIS to provide official updates.

‍

‍