United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) established a new method for processing forms 134A -the ones that correspond to humanitarian parole requests for citizens of Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti. Since May, USCIS has processed 500 cases daily in chronological order and 500 randomly. However, we perceive that the approval of applications is not equitable and prefers certain nationalities over others. Are Haitians the most favored ones?

In this article, we will answer the question that many of us ask ourselves: Is the daily approval of humanitarian parole favoring some nationalities more than others? Keep reading to know which are, in percentages, the probabilities that have Cubans, Haitians, Venezuelans, and Nicaraguans of being advanced or left behind on the parole approval list.

Formula to predict the trend of daily humanitarian parole approvals

Inmigreat has developed formulas for estimating how the approval predictions by country have behaved till now. Its mathematical algorithm uses the statistics that have been released, so far by the USCIS. Eight months after the approval of extension of Program humanitarian parole for Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians, USCIS officially reported the total values ​​of processed cases and the partial values ​​for each of the countries.

Using these variables, along with others, the analysts determined the proportion between approved cases vs. cases submitted by countries. Moreover, it has been possible to stablish the trend of approved cases for each nationality, and how this influences the chronological order of approvals. 

With this formula and analyzing the behavior in the rate of approval of paroles in this period, it has been revealed that the USCIS trend is to approve an equal average number of cases from the four countries. It only applies to the chronological selection.

Equal vs. Equal Processing Fair processing

However, we should not be misled by the appearance of fairness when an equal processing system is implemented. The fact that all countries’ applications are processed equally does not necessarily mean that it is the ideal approach. To ensure proper processing of applications in chronological order, the method of processing should be proportional, not equal. It means that the same proportionate number of applications received by nations in a day should be analyzed daily.

To put it simply, the number of applications submitted daily by people from each country varies significantly. According to USCIS data, during the first four months, the number of applications submitted by Haitians was almost half of the total applications, while Nicaraguans submitted a very low number compared to the other three countries. Therefore, by making the processing equal, nationalities such as Nicaraguans will be privileged in daily applications.

So why do we perceive that more Haitian cases have been processed than other nationalities? Simply because, in the random and chronological selection process, Haitians represent the largest sample and thus have a greater chance of being selected. 

What could be the consequences of this trend?

The mechanism, instead of ensuring the correct processing ordered by the date of application, results in more daily cases of one nationality being processed than those of another. Consequently, the equitable proportion of what should ideally be processed is altered, if the intention is, as stated by USCIS, to respect the order of registration dates. If this trend that our formulas have calculated continues, the immediate consequences could be, if it is not already happening, that the approvals by countries will be out of date concerning the dates.

To explain it more clearly: If the cases from January 6 are approved daily in a proportion that is not related to the pending applications by the registration date for each of the countries, those who have submitted fewer applications will run out before the cases are processed. This implies that there will come a time when cases will be approved for Cubans and Haitians (for example, January 6), while cases for Nicaraguans registered on other dates (January 7 or 8) will also be approved.

Daily approval probability figures by nationality

To ensure the processing of applications in chronological order, our formula estimated that, of the applications submitted by Venezuelans, ideally 109 cases per day should be approved. This value is derived in proportion to the number of requests that are estimated to have entered daily. However, according to the analysis of statistics, approximately 203 cases have been approved per day. This means that the approval speed for Venezuelan citizens is 186% faster than ideal, which 

represents a 17.7% probability that applications from Venezuelan citizens will be advanced in the list of approved cases1.

In the case of applications from Nicaragua, the formula indicates that the equitable proportion of cases that should be approved daily is 18, while the approval behavior has been approximately 165 per day. In this case, the approval speed behaves 914% faster than ideal. Nicaraguans have a 14.6% chance of being ahead on the approval list.

Cubans and Haitians, being the two nationalities with the most applications in process, are the most disadvantaged in this selection method. Cuba cases should be approved at a rate of 346 cases per day. However, statistics indicate that there have been around 198 cases per day. Cubans have an approval speed that is 57% slower than it should be, with a 14.8% probability of being left behind1.

Finally, Haitians should ideally be approved 527 cases per day when in reality 354 cases per day are being approved. This means that the approval speed according to the chronological selection of Haitians is 67% slower than ideal and they are 17.4% behind in the approval list

Conclusions

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The most favored countries so far with this egalitarian system are Venezuela and Nicaragua, while Cuba and Haiti have a rate of approval of cases in negative numbers. In the case of Haiti, since there are a large number of applications submitted from this country, what is lost through this system is gained through random selection. However, the case of the Cubans remains halfway between the two selection systems.

It is important to keep in mind that these are statistical approximations formulated from a rigorous mathematical analysis of the data released from January to July. How exactly does the USCIS process its cases? I don’t think we will be able to know specifically, since this is classified information. However, we can calculate estimates based on the behavior of the data and statistics that have so far been declassified.

Inmigreat, from a purely analytical foundation, based on mathematical logic and the study of probabilities, aims to shed a little light on these issues that have become more complex due to the information vacuum that USCIS has maintained. For this reason, once again we emphasize the need that our usaries remain updating their cases through the Analysis module. This way, our statistics will be closer to reality every day.

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