2,564 changes between July 5 and July 12. But 2,221 of them landed in "In process" — largely USCIS renaming the label ("The case is still being processed" → "USCIS is processing the case"), not real progress. Real approvals were 210; denials, 90.
On the wave days (Jul 10–12), real movement nearly disappears: 30 → 1 → 0 milestone changes, against 857 → 410 → 436 "In process" touches.
| Day | In process | RFE | Approved | Denied | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 05 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Jul 06 | 431 | 2 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 480 |
| Jul 07 | 21 | 0 | 38 | 14 | 0 | 73 |
| Jul 08 | 31 | 3 | 70 | 38 | 3 | 150 |
| Jul 09 | 30 | 2 | 36 | 26 | 12 | 114 |
| Jul 10 · wave | 857 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 887 |
| Jul 11 · wave | 410 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 411 |
| Jul 12 · wave | 436 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 436 |
| Total | 2,221 | 9 | 210 | 90 | 18 | 2,564 |
5,476 changes in the same window. Amid the "In process" noise there was real milestone movement: 1,256 biometrics touches, 142 interviews and 134 approvals.
Concentrated in the three wave days (Jul 10–12), on aging NBC cases: median ~21 months in the system, 99.8% from the MSC prefix, and 0% with a biometrics appointment scheduled — it's batch fingerprint reuse, not new appointments.
| Day | Biometrics | In process | RFE | Interview | Approved | Denied | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 05 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| Jul 06 | 1 | 716 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 800 |
| Jul 07 | 2 | 35 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 116 |
| Jul 08 | 8 | 44 | 30 | 47 | 41 | 13 | 12 | 198 |
| Jul 09 | 43 | 102 | 24 | 41 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 279 |
| Jul 10 · wave | 153 | 1,675 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1,839 |
| Jul 11 · wave | 646 | 1,010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1,658 |
| Jul 12 · wave | 403 | 165 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 571 |
| Total | 1,256 | 3,755 | 89 | 142 | 134 | 51 | 42 | 5,476 |
We look at the same window from two angles: which USCIS block the cases live in — online (IOE) or NBC paper (MSC) — and which generation they belong to by their filing date. The pattern jumps right out.
Of 2,266 work permits, only 115 are MSC (paper). The I-485, by contrast, carries a large group in MSC (1,730): older, from the NBC, and it's the fingerprint-reuse batch we saw earlier.
| Form · block | Cases |
|---|---|
| I-485 · IOE (online) | 5,200 |
| I-765 · IOE (online) | 2,151 |
| I-485 · MSC (paper/NBC) | 1,730 |
| I-765 · MSC | 115 |
| Filing month | I-765 | I-485 |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | 109 | 201 |
| Mar 2025 | 270 | 362 |
| Apr 2025 · peak | 720 | 793 |
| May 2025 | 261 | 785 |
| Jun 2025 | 168 | 561 |
| Jul 2025 | 147 | 486 |
| Aug 2025 | 51 | 399 |
The IOE0930–0934 series (with IOE0931 in front), filed mostly in April 2025 — now ~12–15 months pending. It's the main block USCIS is touching right now.
Older (2024–early 2025) and on NBC paper. It's the fingerprint-reuse batch we'd already spotted — biometrics reprocessed, not new appointments.
Incomplete timeline data worth reviewing separately — it doesn't fit either of the two generations above.
It's the April 2025 generation that applied online (IOE0931 in front), plus a batch of older paper-filed adjustments (MSC) now going through biometrics.
The three days of the original window — July 10, 11 and 12 — show the same pattern in both forms: an abrupt jump in volume that drops just as fast. Everything points to a single USCIS batch process, not an organic, sustained change in pace.
Of the 2,564 changes in the original window, 2,221 landed in "In process" — largely because USCIS renamed the label ("The case is still being processed" → "USCIS is processing the case"), not because of real progress. Real approvals were 210; denials, 90.
1,256 biometrics touches in the original window, with 1,734 concentrated in the three wave days. It's a batch of fingerprint reuse on aging NBC cases — median of ~21 months in the system, 99.8% from the MSC prefix, and 0% with a biometrics appointment scheduled.
Amid the "In process" noise, there were still 142 interviews and 134 real approvals in I-485, and 210 approvals in I-765. It's not only cosmetic — it's just mixed in with what is.